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Residents of the Big Apple will discover the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a contest that will determine who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to freeze rent for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's election to lose.

The Controversial Campaign

However, Cuomo, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, the independent was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be key to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his campaign will be forced to reckon with a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to adopt at least some of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has created an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of considered, uninspiring opposition – a tactic that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade party leaders that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the Democratic party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, in his late sixties, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in recent weeks.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on Fox Business for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the 2024 election, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the race in March 2025 and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who apparently held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in recent days, after video surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA convention in recent years. The progressive, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, indicated he was questioning joint training exercises between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd